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Blu-ray supporters have been making a lot of noise, and some recent statistics released by Home Media Research indicated that 70% of the high-definition movies sold during Q1 2007 were Blu-ray. Those figures seem to make sense because there are more studios on board offering Blu-ray content. Only Warner and Paramount offer both Blu-ray and HD DVD content. Universal Studios’ Home Entertainment’s Ken Graffeo, executive vice president of HD strategic marketing, gave me a different story: "HD DVD has 60% of the high definition set-top market with 150,000 set-top players sold. " Graffeo did point out that the sales number is up 50,000 units from last month. Still just a drop in the bucket, but it reminds me to put the dramatic Blu-ray numbers into perspective. I won’t even venture to say who I think will win this race. I’m just rooting for disc manufacturers who really need a new format to keep their businesses growing. Long-term, Blu-ray would seem to be the solution because it won’t be replaced as quickly by higher-capacity formats like holographics. However, consumers may not be looking at a long-term physical format but may instead be watching the development of better downloading technologies. Marty Gordon of Phillips Electronics says that there are Blu-ray players from six manufacturers currently on the market. "We’ve got the PlayStation3 out there, 12 desktop and notebook PCs, and that keeps going. We’re seeing a lot of momentum around Blu-ray. It’s a content thing looking for a new format. Exact percentages change week to week. Consumers are driven by what’s on the shelf. We see definite spikes when popular titles like the two Pirates of the Caribbean movies are released, and because we have most of the studios backing Blu-ray, we have had many more considerable spikes. " As of the writing of this piece, about 284 Blu-ray titles have been announced and 28 more titles are scheduled to be released in the next couple of months. In Q1 2007, there were 16 new Blu-ray releases with a box office of about $1.4 billion. For HD DVD, that number was only six new releases with a box office of about $400,000, according to Graffeo. "But, that is only a moment it time. Now, it is an even playing field. There are some weeks where HD DVD gets a 40% share. At the end of May, the biggest title was the Matrix package, which is three movies packaged as one. Whereas the two Pirates movies were packaged separately, so they count for two instead of one. You can play with numbers. Are you going to take the Matrix and multiply it by three?" Prices of Blu-ray players are still higher than HD DVD players, with the lowest price in in the $499 range. But Gordon hastens to add that "we’re already starting to see announcements for next-generation players. The fact that there are so many manufacturers supporting Blu-ray discs creates competition which does drive prices down. "
That dual-format LG player started shipping in February. This month, nationwide distribution goes even further to every Best Buy and Circuit City, etc. Even smaller, specialty dealers are handling it. The player sells for $1,200. Samsung also announced that they are developing a player, but that is not scheduled to appear until Q4. But while the LG player may have seemed like a cure-all to some, it’s ot as perfect as it sounds, according to Graffeo. "The LG player does not play any of the interactive features for HD DVD. We're not in favor of that because it is going to give the consumer a bad experience. Samsung did announce that they will have both Blu-ray and HD DVD player drives. It is expected to play the interactive features, but we can’t comment on it because it has not arrived yet." In terms of the HD DVD-only players, every one meets all the requirements of the spec and plays every HD, says Graffeo. "The consumer has the benefit of all players being created equal. " HD DVD is backed by the DVD Forum, so before a consumer buys a player they need to look for the logo. When HD DVD was released a year ago, player prices were $799 and $999, today you will see prices as low as $299 and $399—"a huge value proposition in terms of encouraging sales," Graffeo says. "It’s all about the set-top. It’s not about the titles. It’s about how many players you sell. You can have all of the movies you want out there, but if no one owns a set top, you’re not going to sell them." Does this chicken or the egg situation sound familiar to any one? Another attempt to unify the formats is coming from Cinram, who is working on Total Hi-Def Disc (THD) with Warner Home Video. A THD contains both formats. No word on when that disc will actually hit the market. What are disc manufacturers saying about where the market is going? Not much. However, a Cinram spokesperson not unsurprisingly said, "It's still too early to determine whether consumers are decisively gravitating toward one format or the other. I think that we'll have to wait and see how the 2007 holiday shopping season unfolds and how player prices and availability will affect their purchasing decisions. From Cinram's perspective, the market for high-definition discs is still in its infancy and we don't expect it to become material for us for yet another year or two." Debbie Galante Block is a freelance writer based in Mahopac, New York.
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